Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Trying to Break the Trend
Throughout last week’s trading, we have not seen strong USD/JPY moves, as the pair has tried to avoid breaking the uptrend by moving below the 108.00 support level. The pair lost support at 108.27 but at the same time it did not find enough support to hold onto the 109.00 resistance which motivates the bulls for more upside momentum. The pair’s volatility was in light of conflicting reports regarding the future of the Phase 1 trade agreement between the United States of America and China, with the deal remains elusive. Expectations continue to strongly indicate continued weakness in the pair’s performance in the coming days.
The dollar-yen exchange rate has failed to maintain the break above its 200-day moving average, and since the first week of November, the pair has been in a bearish correction. US government bond yields could prove important in determining whether the USD/JPY is once again challenging its 200-day average or falling further. Revenues are important because Japan’s double surplus, coupled with negative interest rates and weak economic growth for decades, has boosted the appetite of Japanese institutions and households to invest abroad. As is well known, Japan has savers with surpluses in both trade and current accounts, rather than deficits such as the US and UK, which is important for currency markets.
The pair will continue to watch carefully the developments of the world trade war, the future of Brexit and the future of global economic growth. It is the most prominent global trade and geopolitical concerns and with its activity increases investor appetite for safe havens, most importantly the Japanese yen.
According to the technical analysis of the pair:
My technical outlook for the performance of the pair remains unchanged. A break below the 108.00 psychological support will strengthen the bears’ position to move towards stronger support levels and may be closest to 107.65, 106.90 and 106.00 respectively. On the upside, the 110.00 psychological resistance remains the key to the long-term uptrend strength. Overall, the pair seems to lack direction despite recent developments in US-China trade talks. After President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, he returned to hint that a trade deal with China could be made.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 109.92.
The projected lower bound is: 108.05.
The projected closing price is: 108.99.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.7195. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 74 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.330 at 108.970. Volume was 17% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 46% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
108.700 108.970 108.620 108.970 76,000
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.70 108.30 108.94
Volatility: 4 5 7
Volume: 87,545 89,334 90,354
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.