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Monday, September 20, 2021

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) trying to break out above to reach towards the ¥108 level

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) trying to break out above to reach towards the ¥108 level

Remember, more than anything else this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite and therefore you should be paying attention to stock markets. Rallies are starting to get a bit more difficult to come to, but it does look like we are trying to break out above to reach towards the ¥108 level, perhaps even the ¥109 level after that. Signs of exhaustion in that area should work against this pair, especially considering that the risk appetite out there is waxing and waning with headlines involving US/China, and of course Twitter.

While we have broken out quite nicely, the reality is that the ¥109 level and the 200 day EMA both are going to cause quite a bit of trouble above. I believe that this is a countertrend bounce, and not necessarily something that you should jump in with both feet, unless there is some type of trade agreement between the Americans and Chinese that is sustainable.

Right now, it doesn’t look like we are really that close to it, so I think at this point simply looking for signs of exhaustion to take advantage of and start selling will be the way to go going forward. That doesn’t mean we can’t rally for a couple of days, but I do think that will be a short-term phenomenon unless something structurally changes with the market. The meantime, I’m on the sidelines simply waiting for an opportunity to start shorting again but I do recognize short-term traders may take advantage of a grind to the upside.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.29.

The projected lower bound is: 106.33.

The projected closing price is: 107.81.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 97.1365. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 135.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed unchanged at 107.810. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
107.820 107.820 107.760 107.810 2,517
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 106.90 107.14 109.44
Volatility: 5 9 7
Volume: 81,904 88,103 92,393

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 1.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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