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Monday, September 20, 2021

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) trading sideways

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) trading sideways

The US dollar gapped higher to kick off the week on Monday, shot higher from there to form a couple of shooting stars, and have since pulled back to form a couple of hammers that filled the gap, and now we are just simply thinking about this market as one that doesn’t know what to do.

That makes a lot of sense though, because there is so much confusion out there when it comes to risk appetite. Remember, above all this is a pair that follows risk appetite. If we can break above the top of the weekly candle, that would not only be bullish based upon the weekly candle stick but would also send the market above a couple of shooting stars on the daily chart, so you would have both shorter and longer-term traders jumping in at the same time. That could open up a nice move towards the ¥109.70 level. That of course is the bullish scenario and we probably need the S&P 500 to come along with it.

The alternate scenario is that we break down below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is closer to the ¥107.70 level. If we break down below there it opens up the possibility of a move all the way down to the ¥105 level, wiping out the entire rally. Again, this would probably move right along with the S&P 500, and if that breaks down it opens up the door to negativity here as people start buying the Japanese yen for safety.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 109.85.

The projected upper bound is: 109.46.

The projected lower bound is: 107.48.

The projected closing price is: 108.47.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.5587. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.16. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.020 at 108.530. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 25% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
108.440 108.540 108.400 108.530 3,379

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.40 110.18 111.22
Volatility: 3 6 7
Volume: 83,319 86,740 99,582

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 2.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 30 periods.

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