Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) traders look for the safety of the yen after the drone attacks in Saudi Arabia

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) traders look for the safety of the yen after the drone attacks in Saudi Arabia

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) traders look for the safety of the yen after the drone attacks in Saudi Arabia

The US dollar gapped lower against the Japanese yen as traders raced for caution and safety in the aftermath of those drone attacks. However, we have since spent the rest of the day trying to fill that gap so it looks as if the markets may be trying to calm down.

With that being the case, the trade is probably going to set up as soon as that gap is filled. If the market rolls over from there then it means we have to go lower, perhaps down to the ¥107 level. Alternately, if we were to break above that gap, then the market is more than likely going to go looking towards the 200 day EMA which is what we were doing before the weekly open. This is a market that will course moved back and forth with risk appetite so pay attention to secondary indicators such as the S&P 500. If it rallies, typically this pair will as well.

One thing that I have observed during Asian and European trading is that it seems as if the markets are trying to stabilize. If that’s the case, we very well could get that break through to the upside. I do believe that the 200 day EMA will cause issues though and will more than likely offer a selling opportunity. To the downside I would expect the ¥107 level to be very supportive. I think the one thing you can count on is a lot of choppiness.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.58.

The projected lower bound is: 106.69.

The projected closing price is: 108.14.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.0206. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 104.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.030 at 108.150. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 30% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.100 108.150 108.100 108.150 854
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 107.52 107.11 109.37
Volatility: 3 9 7
Volume: 87,377 89,981 92,012

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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