Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) traders brush off US-China tensions

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) traders brush off US-China tensions

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) traders brush off US-China tensions

he Japanese yen is currently weakening against all major currencies except the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. Last week, the yen continued to weaken against the US dollar. Trading volumes in Japanese yen futures decelerated week-over-week, albeit to a fairly small degree. Today’s USD/JPY trading range is 110.10 – 112.90. USD/JPY continues to be overbought (i.e. the yen is oversold).

Looking at recent price action, the yen moved up sharply earlier today. Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal reported that China had canceled its upcoming trade discussions with the United States. As a safe haven currency, the yen tends to rally in response to rising risks. Following the initial move, the yen has now given up all of its gains. Looking at AUD/JPY (one of the biggest losers earlier today), the pair is currently trading just below its recent highs. Note that today is a public holiday in Japan and Mainland China, and trading volumes in the yen are fairly limited as a result.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 111.20.

The projected upper bound is: 113.88.

The projected lower bound is: 111.67.

The projected closing price is: 112.78.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 85.4542. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 48 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 112.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.010 at 112.780. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 12% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
112.790 112.800 112.730 112.780 5,029

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 112.23 111.39 109.75
Volatility: 5 6 8
Volume: 84,500 100,196 104,815

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 2.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into JPY= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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