Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Testing Major Retracement Zone at 106.890 to 107.463
The Dollar/Yen closed slightly lower on Friday, while posting an inside move. The price action suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. It also shows that traders had almost no reaction to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, probably because it is not likely to have any major impact on the Fed’s monetary policy decision later in the month.
The jobs report was mixed and is not going to significantly alter the Fed’s view of the economy going into the central bank’s September 18 policy meeting.
The U.S. Labor Department said private and public employees hired 130,000 workers in July, fewer than the 158,000 forecast by economists. Hourly wages grew 0.4% last month, higher than the 0.3% forecast. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 3.7%.
At the end of the day, futures traders were still pricing in a greater than 90% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed later in the month.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 108.28.
The projected lower bound is: 105.33.
The projected closing price is: 106.81.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 77.7776. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 120.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.060 at 106.840. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 40% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
106.810 106.880 106.780 106.840 1,215
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 106.38 107.14 109.52
Volatility: 6 9 7
Volume: 84,417 88,345 93,068
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.
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