Japanese Yen News
USD/JPY held steady-to-lower levels and should remain above big options expiries at 105 before Jerome Powell’s policy speech on Thursday , but it could fall below there if the Fed chair’s economic view darkens enough to rekindle negative-rates speculation.
Weighing on the dollar were expectations that the Fed will formalize a shift to average inflation targeting, allowing price growth to rise above its 2% goal to compensate for time spent below.
The implication is the Fed, with its funds target rate already only at 0-25bp, would depress Treasury yields by committing to keep the funds rate near zero until inflation targeting and full employment goals have been met.
These policy changes are now largely reflected in Treasury and TIPS yields, and the dollar’s drop from March. Unless Powell raises negative rates speculation, 105 should hold USD/JPY, but 107 supply should cap.
USD/JPY Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
USD/JPY Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 107.03.
The projected lower bound is: 104.82.
The projected closing price is: 105.92.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 63.9474. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.020 at 105.950. Volume was 77% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 9% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 105.970 106.050 105.850 105.950 24,815
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 106.14 106.56 108.01 Volatility: 7 7 12 Volume: 84,994 97,867 106,099
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 1.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 49 periods.