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Japanese Yen News
Japan is an export-oriented country, which is well-known for its brands like Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi. However, in recent months, the country’s exports have been on a downward trend.
According to the ministry of finance, exports declined by 19.2% to ¥5.3 trillion. In July, the country had exported goods worth more than ¥6.6 trillion. While the 19.2% decline was better than the previous decline of 26.2%, it was also the 20th consecutive month that exports have fallen.
Similarly, Japan imported fewer goods in July. The imports declined by 22.3% to ¥5.35 trillion. That was the 15th consecutive month that the imports have fallen. As a result, the country’s trade surplus increased to more than ¥11.6 billion.
The data showed that exports to Asia declined by 8.2% while those to North America fell by 20.7%. Similarly, those to Western Europe declined by 32.5%. At the same time, imports from Asia declined by 13.5% while those from North America and Western Europe fell by 25.2% and 18.0%, respectively.
Unfortunately, the stronger Japanese yen could have dire effects to Japan’s exports. The USD/JPY pair has been in a downward trend after it reached a high of 112 in February this year. A stronger yen is disadvantageous for Japan because it makes its exports more expensive abroad.
Japanese Yen Outlook
The USD/JPY pair is trading at 105.60. On the daily chart, the price is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. It is also slightly below the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). Also, yesterday, the pair formed a three black crows pattern. Therefore, I suspect that the pair will continue falling as bears target the next support at 105.00.
USD/JPY Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
USD/JPY Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 107.23.
The projected lower bound is: 105.00.
The projected closing price is: 106.12.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 7 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.8693. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.49. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 2. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.030 at 106.130. Volume was 88% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 106.090 106.150 105.950 106.130 12,625 Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 106.24 106.65 108.05 Volatility: 8 7 12 Volume: 79,631 98,976 105,886
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 46 periods.
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