Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) stuck in tight range
USD/JPY has moved sideways over the past few days, from around ¥108 to ¥109.
A break of this range is needed to provide definitive direction, but with the price having rallied overnight from the lows around ¥108, a possible short trade within the current range emerges. Alternatively, with the price having possibly bottomed out around ¥108, a break above ¥109 would confirm a more bullish view and allow traders to buy on dips as the trend develops.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 111.03.
The projected upper bound is: 109.99.
The projected lower bound is: 107.08.
The projected closing price is: 108.53.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.9715. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.53. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.470 at 108.630. Volume was 4% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 78% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
108.150 108.760 108.120 108.630 104,704
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.44 111.81 111.16
Volatility: 11 8 7
Volume: 99,188 109,602 105,484
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.
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