Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) struggles to find direction

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) struggles to find direction

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) struggles to find direction

After climbing to its highest level in more than two weeks at 108.16, the USD/JPY pair lost its traction in the last hours and erased its daily gains. As of writing, the pair was virtually unchanged on a daily basis at 107.84.

The latest reports surrounding the U.S. – China trade conflict ahead of the critical G20 summit, at which U.S. President Trump is expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi, caused the positive impact of trade optimism on the market sentiment to fade away. 

According to The Wall Street Journal, China is insisting that the U.S. lifts all punitive tariffs as part of an agreement. On the other hand, Chinese news outlet the Global Times claimed that Chinese analysts saw President Trump’s threat of additional tariffs just before the meeting as a bullying tactic that is likely to backfire. “Some Chinese analysts are not optimistic about the outcome of the meeting given the widening divisions between the two countries, particularly after the US’ latest threats,” the GT wrote.

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which rose to a fresh weekly high earlier today, reversed course on these headlines and was last down 0.53% on the day at 2.038%.

Later in the day, final reading of the first-quarter GDP growth in the U.S. will be looked upon for fresh impetus. A disappointing figure could put the greenback under a renewed pressure as it would revive speculations of a 50 basis points rate cut in July. Ahead of this data, the US Dollar Index is virtually unchanged on the day at 96.20.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 109.26.

The projected upper bound is: 108.86.

The projected lower bound is: 106.82.

The projected closing price is: 107.84.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 9 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 55.6768. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.15. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -16. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.150 at 107.920. Volume was 27% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 21% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
107.780 108.150 107.630 107.920 65,646

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 107.84 109.53 111.05
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 86,278 88,907 99,714

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 2.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 38 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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