Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Still Eyes 112 Resistance

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Still Eyes 112 Resistance

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Still Eyes 112 Resistance

The Japanese Yen has yet to surrender a key short-term psychological resistance point to the US Dollar, but it may do so very soon.

USD/JPY remains well within the uptrend channel which has bounded trade for much of this year. However, the JPY112.00 level has capped the market. The pair has failed to get above there on a daily closing basis despite coming close in the last three weeks and even topping that point intraday on March 1.

Now however we can clearly see the convergent uptrend and downtrend lines of a pennant formation on the daily chart. This is what’s usually known to technical analysts as a ‘continuation pattern.’ What that means is that the previous market impulse is likely to be regained once the pattern has been broken.

Clearly that looks like quite good news for US Dollar bulls as it implies that USD/JPY will resume its rise, probably quite soon.

Whether or not it can get comfortable above the 112.00 point and prime itself for another attempt at the peaks of late 2018 is much more debatable. However, playing for continued modest gains at least seems like the most sensible plan for now.

Against the Australian Dollar meanwhile, the Japanese currency looks rather stuck. Scrappy range trade with many narrow daily ranges has dominated this cross since at least early January.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.81.

The projected upper bound is: 112.55.

The projected lower bound is: 110.76.

The projected closing price is: 111.66.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 49.6094. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.02. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 53 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 9. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.220 at 111.590. Volume was 58% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 45% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
111.390 111.680 111.330 111.590 42,540

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.39 110.33 111.45
Volatility: 5 5 7
Volume: 84,419 94,444 104,058

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 37 periods.

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