Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) stays close to daily highs around 112.50
- The pair trades in fresh 6-month tops around 112.50/60.
The greenback remains bid although failed near 95.00.
US 10-year yields stay sidelined around 2.86%/2.875.
The selling pressure around the Japanese yen remains well and sound so far this week and has now lifted USD/JPY to new 6-month tops in the 112.50/60 band.
USD/JPY looks to trade, data, yields
The up move in the pair comes despite the lack of upside traction in yields of the key US 10-year note, which appear to be consolidating around the 2.86% neighbourhood.
The rally in the pair lost some momentum after US inflation figures for the month of June failed to meet expectations, showing headline consumer prices rising at a monthly 0.1% and core prices up 0.2% MoM.
In the meantime, spot remains vigilant on the US-China trade spat and comments by President Trump in his European tour and ahead of the key meeting with Russia’s V.Putin.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.05.
The projected upper bound is: 113.68.
The projected lower bound is: 111.46.
The projected closing price is: 112.57.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 94.4870. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 73.33. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 37 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 189.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.050 at 112.500. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 19% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
112.550 112.550 112.480 112.500 248
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.18 110.19 110.12
Volatility: 6 6 8
Volume: 94,087 99,625 105,609
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that JPY= is currently in an overbought condition.
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