Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) starting to face a bit of resistance

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) starting to face a bit of resistance

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) starting to face a bit of resistance

The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Monday, but then is starting to face a bit of resistance in the form of the ¥107 level. I think at this point the market is going to continue to chop around and be noisy, but more than likely what we are about to see is an attempt to rally right along with the stock market but the 50 day EMA will start to come into play which is in red on the chart. If we do break through the 50 day EMA then the market will probably start looking towards the ¥108 level.

Keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see this move right along with the S&P 500 as per usual. That being the case, if we see some type of selling pressure in the S&P 500 or perhaps other indices, that may send this market right back down.

We are still very much in a downtrend so I’m looking to sell this pair after some type of rally that shows signs of exhaustion. At this point, we would probably see the market try to reach the ¥105 level underneath yet again as it has shown such massive support. That being said, the market is going to move right along with that risk appetite so pay attention to major indices around the world to give you a bit of a secondary indicator.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 107.95.

The projected upper bound is: 107.96.

The projected lower bound is: 105.21.

The projected closing price is: 106.58.

Candlesticks

During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 77.7556. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed unchanged at 106.620. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 81% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
106.620 106.630 106.610 106.620 72
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 106.16 107.61 110.01
Volatility: 10 8 7
Volume: 91,813 87,281 94,765

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 3.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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