Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) sits at 110.80 levels but the 111.00 handle still proves to be elusive

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) sits at 110.80 levels but the 111.00 handle still proves to be elusive

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) sits at 110.80 levels but the 111.00 handle still proves to be elusive

The pair continues to find support from around 110.50 and buyers broke back above the 100-hour MA (red line) in earlier trading to establish a more near-term bullish bias. The break comes after yet more disappointing data from Japan as the trade deficit widens alongside a significant dip in exports.
Further weakness in economic data will surely prompt more worries in the yen as it could lead to what Kuroda described yesterday, that the BOJ will take action if conditions start to threaten the central bank’s ability to reach its 2% price target.

That said, the bigger factor at play for USD/JPY this week will be risk sentiment derived from trade talks in Washington. Currently, there is a huge deal of silence as markets continue to wait with abated breath on any developments there.

Hence, traders so far are able to react to near-term risk factors and that comes from Kuroda’s comments yesterday and the trade balance data today; both of which has proved to be negative for the yen.

However, the upside for USD/JPY still proves to be limited as long as risk assets aren’t looking to take flight just yet with trade talks still to come. The 111.00 handle will be the key level to watch out for in that regard but for trading today, there are also large expiries sitting around 110.75-85 that could help to attract price action to stick around current levels.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 112.29.

The projected lower bound is: 109.46.

The projected closing price is: 110.87.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 53.4089. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.82. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 33 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.310 at 110.920. Volume was 65% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 17% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.620 110.930 110.510 110.920 36,770

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.44 110.01 111.30
Volatility: 5 8 7
Volume: 86,776 96,124 105,555

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.

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