Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) significant resistance

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) significant resistance

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) significant resistance

The US dollar rallied a bit against the Japanese yen, but it seems as if we are still struggling at the 200 day EMA, and of course the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The ¥111 level is significant resistance in and of itself, and as you can see to the left there is a cluster of trading in the middle of December.

With that cluster being there, I think there is a lot of order flow, and at this point I think it makes sense that we will eventually roll over a bit and start going down to the ¥109 level given enough time. At this point, I find it very difficult to buy this market as there’s so much in the way of noise overhead. I anticipate that this will be an area that causes a lot of trouble, but I believe that if we can break down below the bottom of the hammer from last week, that could be the signal for sellers to jump in.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 112.03.

The projected lower bound is: 109.23.

The projected closing price is: 110.63.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.1301. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.30. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 34 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 27 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.160 at 110.690. Volume was 4% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 16% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.840 110.870 110.560 110.690 102,050

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.53 109.95 111.30
Volatility: 5 8 7
Volume: 91,551 96,928 105,813

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

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