Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) shrugs off lower Japanese trade balance

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) shrugs off lower Japanese trade balance

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) shrugs off lower Japanese trade balance

The USD/JPY had looked fairly resolute in the face of rising trading tensions between China and the United States, with the pair holding well above its 200-day moving average. However, it became apparent this week that falling U.S. and Chinese equity markets quickly weigh heavily on the USD/JPY pair’s trading sentiment.

Fears of a slowdown in Chinese economic activity may yet provide the catalyst that USD/JPY bears have been waiting for. Fears of emerging market contagion also started to weigh on the USD/JPY pair in early-week, until the Turkish central bank stepped in to prevent a further slide in the Turkish lira.

In order to regain earlier bullish momentum, USD/JPY pair now needs to clear the 111.39 resistance level, with further key upside resistance found at 112.05 and 112.80.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.99.

The projected lower bound is: 109.88.

The projected closing price is: 110.94.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 56.0608. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -55. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.030 at 110.910. Volume was 94% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 56% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.880 110.960 110.810 110.910 5,948

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.01 111.02 109.89
Volatility: 4 6 8
Volume: 92,729 100,895 105,930

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.

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