Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) sharp retreat
Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with today’s sharp retreat. On the upside, above 113.81 will extend the rebound from 113.37 to 114.54 resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 112.56 minor support will argue the the rebound has completed. And, in that case, the corrective pattern from 114.54 could have started the third leg for 111.37 support and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 112.17.
The projected upper bound is: 114.75.
The projected lower bound is: 112.38.
The projected closing price is: 113.57.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 9 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 83.3838. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 24 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 127.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.110 at 113.530. Volume was 21% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 21% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
113.420 113.810 112.920 113.530 129,603
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 112.87 112.46 109.96
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 115,248 107,796 108,646
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 3.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.
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