Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) seems likely that the overall market focus will remain to the downside

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) seems likely that the overall market focus will remain to the downside

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) seems likely that the overall market focus will remain to the downside

USD/JPY has still failed to recapture the levels seen before it occurred.

Unless and until Dollar bulls can make good at least that loss, then it seems likely that the overall market focus will remain to the downside. Last week’s broad trading range is probably spurious, and its lower reaches probably don’t tell us much about likely support levels as a result.

However, two Fibonacci retracement levels of the rise up from 2018’s March low to its October peak might still be worth watching.

The first is 108.50. That represents the fourth 61.8% retracement. The Dollar has managed to fight back above that level since last week. If it holds as support the bulls might be able to build a modest base above it. However this prospect won’t be confirmed until we’ve seen at least a weekly close above that level and preferably more than one.

Should that level rather give way then the fifth retracement at 107.08 is all that will stand between the market and the total erasure of all 2018’s gains.

That day of broad Yen strength last week is casting its baleful shadow across all the daily technical charts. However in the case of Sterling it is perhaps notable how closely the fall that day corresponded with the downtrend channel previously established back on November 29.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 111.26.

The projected upper bound is: 109.63.

The projected lower bound is: 106.75.

The projected closing price is: 108.19.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 79.0511. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 30.94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.450 at 108.280. Volume was 24% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 151% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
108.730 108.990 108.030 108.280 82,501

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.13 112.19 111.13
Volatility: 10 8 7
Volume: 87,603 108,853 105,637

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 2.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.

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