Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) risk-off offers fresh lift to JPY bulls

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) risk-off offers fresh lift to JPY bulls

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) risk-off offers fresh lift to JPY bulls

  • USD/JPY trades 0.06% lower on the day at 109.26 at 0500 GMT, bias lower.
     
  • The pair is extending weakness as the safe-haven Japanese yen remains in demand amid risk-off.
     
  • USD bulls remian on the side lines ahead of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting and trade talks between China and the US.
     
  • Focus will be on US CB consumer confidence data due later in the NY session along with Japanese trade figures. 
     
  • Technical studies are bias lower, upside capped at 5-DMA, RSI and Stochs are biased lower.
     
  • 20-DMA is strong support on the downside, break below will see further weakness.
     
  • Scope then for test of 61.8% Fib at 108.41. Further weakness can see downside till 78.6% Fib at 106.75.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 110.68.

The projected lower bound is: 107.80.

The projected closing price is: 109.24.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 30.8879. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 30. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.030 at 109.310. Volume was 14% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 26% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
109.340 109.530 109.120 109.310 94,744

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.45 111.01 111.25
Volatility: 4 8 7
Volume: 99,453 105,262 104,824

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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