Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Risk Aviation Causing Losses

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Risk Aviation Causing Losses

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Risk Aviation Causing Losses

Strong signs from the US central bank of a near US interest rate cut contributed to stronger losses for the US dollar against other major currencies. The USD / JPY pair fell back to the support level 107.85 at the time of writing, after its recent gains, which lasted for four straight sessions, reaching to the resistance level of 108.96. If US CPI figures fall short of expectations, financial markets may confirm Fed fears of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy. Jerome Powell, according to his testimony before the US Congress Committee, and what was later stated in the content of the minutes of the Fed’s last meeting, confirms to the markets by 100% that the bank will soon reduce US interest rates, and the current month maybe more appropriate to do so.

From a technical perspective, if the pair moves around and below the 107.00 support level, the bearish trend will strengthen and the bullish hopes will evaporate.

The JPY is leading safe haven for investors as global trade and political tensions continues, supported by the global trade war between the US and China. Powell’s testimony and the minutes of the bank’s last meeting in June, ended the recent optimism from the positive US job numbers in June, which boosted recent gains in the US dollar.

The Japanese yen will see more purchase appeal if Trump levies tariffs on all US imports from China. On the other hand, if the two sides reach a long-term trade agreement, the Japanese yen may lose a lot, as that will increase risk appetite.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.48.

The projected lower bound is: 107.29.

The projected closing price is: 108.39.


During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 70.3043. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.04. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 43. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.010 at 108.450. Volume was 14% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
108.450 108.520 107.850 108.450 77,278

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.27 108.85 110.79
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 82,645 90,179 98,776

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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