Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) risk appetite improves

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) risk appetite improves

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) risk appetite improves

Dollar/yen gained ground last week, as the pair recorded its highest weekly close since mid- December. Stocks rose, as investors remain optimistic on a deal between the U.S. and China.

In the U.S., consumer spending had a dismal January, with retail sales and core retail sales recording sharp declines.

Japanese GDP rebounded in the fourth quarter with a gain of 0.3%, after a decline of 0.6% in the third quarter. Business and consumer spending improved, helping the economy expand. Exports rose 0.9% in Q4, the strongest growth in a year.

The sides completed a third round of talks last week, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin calling the negotiations “productive”. The key question is whether President Trump will suspend the March 1 deadline to impose new tariffs on China. The U.S. has threatened to raise tariffs on some $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, but Trump has said he could let the deadline pass if there is progress in the talks.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.87.

The projected lower bound is: 109.00.

The projected closing price is: 110.44.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 69.3182. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 30 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.010 at 110.480. Volume was 1% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.470 110.640 110.240 110.480 107,028

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.21 110.17 111.29
Volatility: 6 8 7
Volume: 94,922 99,561 105,796

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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