Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) rising global bond yields

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) rising global bond yields

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) rising global bond yields

The Japanese yen is currently weakening against all major currencies. The yen is the weakest against the British pound today. Yesterday, the yen ended the day slightly lower against the US dollar. Notably, trading volumes in Japanese yen futures accelerated relative to the previous session and compared to 30-day averages. This is a sign that yen traders are once again buying the currency with conviction. Today’s USD/JPY trading range is 110.20 – 113.60.

In line with rising global bond yields, the yen is weakening today. Looking across financial markets, US Treasury bond yields have resumed strengthening. 10-year Treasuries are currently yielding 3.23%, up from a low of 3.2% seen yesterday. Other developed market bond yields are also rising today. Both 10-year U.K. Gilt and 10-year German Bund yields are also currently higher. As the yen offers very low yields, the currency tends to weaken in response to rising yields in other countries.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 111.97.

The projected upper bound is: 113.42.

The projected lower bound is: 111.12.

The projected closing price is: 112.27.

Candlesticks

During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 5.4727. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -138.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.010 at 112.260. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 23% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
112.260 112.280 112.100 112.260 2,698

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 113.41 111.83 109.77
Volatility: 8 7 8
Volume: 94,696 99,827 106,959

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 2.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.

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