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Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Reversing to New Lows

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Reversing to New Lows

On Monday, both British Pound and US Dollar weakened against Japanese Yen, with GBP/JPY testing its lowest level in over two and half years at 126.55. Meanwhile, USD/JPY printed 105.05 – Its lowest level in over seven months.

This week the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed above 30 on GBP/JPY, then moved for the first time since the start of the month outside of the oversold territory, highlighting the weakened downtrend momentum. On the other hand, the oscillator rebounded from 30 then pointed higher to 43 on USD/JPY indicating to the seller’s loss of control.

Looking at the daily chart, we notice on Tuesday USDJPY reverted back to the same old trading zone 105.50 -107.30 eyeing a test of the high end.

Thus, a close above the high end of the zone could push the price towards 108.61. Nonetheless, the weekly resistance levels marked on the chart (zoomed in) would be worth monitoring.

On the flip-side, any failure in closing above the high end could lead the price towards the low end of the zone. Further close below the low end could see USD/JPY trading even lower towards 104.77. The weekly support level at 105.00 handle should be watched closely.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 107.98.

The projected upper bound is: 107.47.

The projected lower bound is: 104.72.

The projected closing price is: 106.09.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 63.0584. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.250 at 106.140. Volume was 17% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 91% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
105.900 106.770 105.690 106.140 103,984
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 106.10 107.72 110.11
Volatility: 12 8 7
Volume: 108,827 89,256 95,613

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 3.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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