Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Retail trade data shows that 71% of traders are net-long

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Retail trade data shows that 71% of traders are net-long

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Retail trade data shows that 71% of traders are net-long

USD/JPY: Retail trader data shows 71.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.49 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 03 when USD/JPY traded near 111.977; price has moved 6.1% lower since then.

The number of traders net-long is 6.4% higher than yesterday and 21.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.8% higher than yesterday and 23.5% higher from last week.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 108.03.

The projected upper bound is: 107.93.

The projected lower bound is: 105.29.

The projected closing price is: 106.61.

Candlesticks

A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 39.3104. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.33. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed above 30 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 1.350 at 106.640. Volume was 17% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 86% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
105.290 106.970 105.050 106.640 103,468
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 106.50 107.81 110.19
Volatility: 13 8 7
Volume: 105,681 88,731 95,768

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 3.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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