Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) resistance at 113.10

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) resistance at 113.10

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) resistance at 113.10

The Japanese yen has posted slight losses in the Monday session. In North American trade, USD/JPY is trading at 112.48, down 0.32% on the day. On the release front, Japan’s trade surplus rose to JPY 0.30 trillion, lower than the estimate of JPY 0.48 trillion. There are no major U.S. events on the schedule. On Tuesday, the U.S. releases building permits and housing starts.

The Bank of Japan has no plans to alter its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, as inflation remains well below the BoJ target of around 2 percent. However, there have been negative side effects to this stance, primarily the toll on bank profits, which has raised concerns that banks might take excessive risks in order to recoup lost profits. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda addressed this issue on Monday, warning that risk management steps were needed in order to maintain the stability of the financial system and ensure that borrowing costs did not climb sharply.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 112.51.

The projected upper bound is: 113.65.

The projected lower bound is: 111.30.

The projected closing price is: 112.48.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.4208. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 32 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -144.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.370 at 112.450. Volume was 11% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 1% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
112.820 112.870 112.410 112.450 95,892

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 113.49 112.84 110.14
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 117,045 110,840 108,071

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 2.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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