Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) remains confined to a broad trading range

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) remains confined to a broad trading range

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) remains confined to a broad trading range

The Japanese Yen has been in a broad trading range against the US Dollar since late October and it looks as though it will be worth playing for some time yet.

The range base comes in at 112.34 which is just about exactly where the first, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of USD/JPY’s rise to the highs of this year, from the lows of March, lies. That point held Dollar bears in check by forming the intraday lows of Monday and last Thursday and, indeed, has held since October 29.

The range top is some way above the market, at 114.17 and, while it looks in no immediate danger, the pair’s medium-term uptrend line from early April still holds, suggesting that current range trade retains a Dollar-bullish bias. The bulls’ next target lies in the 113.82 region which is where USD/JPY made its last significant top, on November 28. This is not too far above current market levels, but the sharp fall seen on December 3 will take some resolve to overcome.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways

The projected upper bound is: 114.34.

The projected lower bound is: 112.07.

The projected closing price is: 113.20.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.5001. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 49 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 15. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.140 at 113.230. Volume was 7% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 31% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
113.370 113.510 113.130 113.230 119,279

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 113.18 113.01 110.69
Volatility: 7 6 7
Volume: 123,051 118,412 107,691

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 2.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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