Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) recording considerable losses

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) recording considerable losses

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) recording considerable losses

USD/JPY has recorded considerable losses on Monday, after losing ground in the past two sessions. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 113.15, down 0.50% on the day. There are no U.S releases due to a holiday. Later in the day, Japan releases Current Account, which the surplus expected to rise to JPY 1.52 trillion. On Tuesday, Japan publishes Core Machinery Orders.

The yen has picked up where it left off last week, continuing to gain ground against the greenback. Since Thursday, USD/JPY has declined 1.3%, as the pair trades just above the 113 level. The yen posted slight gains on Friday, after mixed employment data. Nonfarm payrolls dropped sharply to 134 thousand, its smallest gain in a year. This was well short of the estimate of 185 thousand. However, one factor in the disappointing release is Hurricane Florence, which led to many employees being unable to report to work during the storm. Wages appear headed in the right direction – Average Hourly Earnings gained 0.3% in September, and are up 2.9% on a year-to-year basis. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, its lowest level since 1969. The mixed numbers put a slight damper on the odds of a December hike, which dipped to 76% after the job releases, down from 80% prior to the releases. A December rate hike would be the fourth this year, with the Fed expected to raise rates another three times in 2019.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 111.96.

The projected upper bound is: 114.30.

The projected lower bound is: 112.09.

The projected closing price is: 113.20.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 21.7778. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -16. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.060 at 113.170. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 40% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
113.200 113.230 113.120 113.170 3,191

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 113.59 111.81 109.78
Volatility: 8 6 8
Volume: 97,029 99,473 106,541

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 3.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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