Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) price testing critical support zone
USD/JPY is trading into a critical support zone we’ve been tracking for months now at 107.84-108.43– a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2018 advance and the 2017 low-week close.
A break below this key zone is needed to keep the bears in control targeting the 2013 trendline just above the 106-handle.
Resistance stands with the objective yearly open at 109.68 backed by the high-week close at 111.54. Ultimately a breach above 112.43/59 would be needed to shift the broader focus back to the topside in USD/JPY.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 109.92.
The projected upper bound is: 109.39.
The projected lower bound is: 107.41.
The projected closing price is: 108.40.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 67.4909. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.82. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -31. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.030 at 108.460. Volume was 94% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 37% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
108.500 108.510 108.440 108.460 5,704
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.34 110.31 111.25
Volatility: 8 6 7
Volume: 87,269 86,467 99,524
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods.