Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Price Forecast US Dollar Runs Into Resistance

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Price Forecast US Dollar Runs Into Resistance

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Price Forecast US Dollar Runs Into Resistance

The US dollar has pulled back a bit against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday as the 50% Fibonacci retracement level has made its presence known. That being said though, it’s very likely that the area that could cause quite a bit of issues not only due to the fact that the 50% Fibonacci retracement level is right here, but also the fact that the 200 day EMA is just above, and currently at the top of the major breakdown candle that had started the move lower to begin with. In other words, this is exactly where the pair faces its biggest challenge.

Keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite, and therefore should be paid attention to. If the stock markets are generally positive, quite often the Japanese yen get sold off, which of course push as this pair to the upside. Obviously though, the exact opposite can and will be true at times, so pay attention to that as well. There are also plenty of geopolitical issues out there that will continue to make this a bit of a difficult move to the upside but if we were to close above the 200 day EMA on the daily chart, that is in and of itself technically a change of trend and could send this market much higher, with the initial target being the ¥110 level, followed by ¥112.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.47.

The projected lower bound is: 106.60.

The projected closing price is: 108.03.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.6666. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.55. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 28 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 24 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.030 at 108.030. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 35% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.000 108.030 107.960 108.030 527
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 107.94 107.10 109.29
Volatility: 4 9 7
Volume: 85,312 90,922 91,683

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 1.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into JPY= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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