Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Possible Upside Acceleration

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Possible Upside Acceleration

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Possible Upside Acceleration

The Dollar/Yen is trading flat early Thursday ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) interest rate and monetary policy decisions. The BOJ is expected to keep monetary settings steady and maintain its upbeat view on the economy, suggesting policymakers are in no hurry to boost stimulus even as global risks threaten to thwart a fragile recovery.

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY rose as U.S. economic data suggested the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates further. On Tuesday, reports showed a jump in U.S. Building Permits and Housing Starts. Industrial Production also outperformed the estimates.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out 109.707 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the main top at 109.728 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A drive through 109.930 could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

The first sign of weakness will be a move under 109.371. Taking out 109.184 could trigger a break into 109.069. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into a support cluster at 108.434 to 108.430.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 110.15.

The projected lower bound is: 108.47.

The projected closing price is: 109.31.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.2939. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 92 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.250 at 109.280. Volume was 27% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 29% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
109.540 109.670 109.170 109.280 64,319
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 109.08 108.84 108.75
Volatility: 5 5 7
Volume: 76,656 85,060 89,190

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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