Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Pair Looks As If It Is Building Support

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Pair Looks As If It Is Building Support

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Pair Looks As If It Is Building Support

The US dollar has pulled back slightly against the Japanese yen to kick off the trading session on Friday, and at this point it looks as if we are essentially stuck between the 50 day EMA underneath and the 200 day EMA above.

At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to build up enough inertia to make a move, and at this point it’s likely to go higher based upon the fact that we have formed a couple of hammers in a row. That being the case though, it’s likely that the area above will continue to cause some issues that, and quite frankly we need some good economic news to make it drive a bit higher.

So far, the 50 day EMA underneath has offered a significant amount of support and continues to be important. At this point, the market is likely to reach towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, near the ¥109.50 level. That area extends to the ¥110 level, so once we get past that level, it’s likely that the market will go looking towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level closer to the ¥112.50 level. At this point, the market is likely to be reacting to better economic conditions so this point it’s likely that the market will be in full overdrive.

To the downside, if we were to break down below the ¥108 level, it could open up the door to the ¥107 level underneath. This would obviously be due to some type of negative headline, but at this point I think it would be only a temporary dip.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.63.

The projected lower bound is: 107.79.

The projected closing price is: 108.71.

Candlesticks

During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 5 black candles for a net of 1 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 53.9536. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 74 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.060 at 108.700. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 47% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.700 108.750 108.690 108.700 323
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.67 108.30 108.94
Volatility: 3 5 7
Volume: 79,978 87,820 89,976

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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