Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Outlook unclear

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Outlook unclear

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Outlook unclear

Our recent expectation for USD to edge lower towards 109.35 is proven wrong as it staged a surprisingly strong rebound and hit an overnight high of 111.31. While the high is below the 111.50 ‘key resistance’, the strong daily closing is enough to indicate that the recent downward pressure has eased.

We continue to hold a neutral USD view and after the recent choppy price action, the outlook for the next couple of weeks is unclear. The best call is probably for USD to grind higher but the 112.14 high seen early this month is a solid resistance and the odds for a break of this level are not high. It appears more likely that USD is trading in a broad range for now, probably between 110.30 and 112.20.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.71.

The projected lower bound is: 109.60.

The projected closing price is: 110.66.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 55.6677. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -107.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.090 at 110.640. Volume was 92% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 54% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.730 110.740 110.620 110.640 8,046

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.02 110.99 109.90
Volatility: 4 6 8
Volume: 89,583 100,791 105,921

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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