Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Momentum Shifts to Downside if 109.790 Fails
The Dollar/Yen is trading lower on Tuesday as the spread of a pneumonia-like virus in China sparked a sudden bout of risk aversion and drove Asian stocks sharply lower. The outbreak of the disease, which has spread from the central city of Wuhan, is still in its early stages. However, it comes right before the peak travel season during the Lunar New Year holidays, raising risks that it could spread further.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 110.290 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 107.651 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement of the last rally.
The minor trend is also up. A trade through 109.790 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.
The minor range is 109.790 to 110.290. Its pivot at 110.040 is controlling the direction of the USD/JPY on Tuesday.
The first major support is a longer-term Fibonacci level at 109.371.
The short-term range is 107.651 to 110.290. Its retracement zone at 108.971 to 108.659 is the primary downside target.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action and the current price at 108.929, the direction of the USD/JPY the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 110.040.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 109.11.
The projected upper bound is: 110.63.
The projected lower bound is: 108.98.
The projected closing price is: 109.81.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.1704. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 115 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.390 at 109.790. Volume was 12% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 38% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
110.180 110.210 109.750 109.790 72,753
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.81 109.12 108.53
Volatility: 5 5 7
Volume: 80,701 77,208 86,803
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 1.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.