Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) mixed performance expected

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) mixed performance expected

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) mixed performance expected

The Dollar/Yen put in a mixed performance last week before closing higher. The price action was a little skewed last week due to thin trading conditions because of bank holidays in the United States and Japan.

The Forex pair started the week under pressure as investors continued to react to relatively flat U.S. consumer inflation data from November 14 and somewhat dovish comments from a couple of Fed officials about the pace of future rate hikes.

The Dollar/Yen also tracked U.S. Treasury yields nearly tick for tick last week, suggesting most of the price action was controlled by demand for safe-haven assets.

U.S. equity markets retreated all week, posting their worst Thanksgiving week performance since 2011. This may have fueled some flight to safety buying into the U.S. Dollar, leading to the higher weekly close.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 114.04.

The projected lower bound is: 111.82.

The projected closing price is: 112.93.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.6232. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.41. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 37 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.030 at 112.910. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
112.940 112.970 112.910 112.910 1,062

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 113.10 112.96 110.29
Volatility: 5 6 7
Volume: 110,622 112,269 107,273

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 2.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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