Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) mild bearish bias

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) mild bearish bias

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) mild bearish bias

US dollar strength is still prevailing across the board, in line with the recent market consensus. The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate on hold this morning after yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

On the Daily chart below, after a strong breakout of the 110.00 round number on 11 July, price has pulled back and has been resting at the same level for more than a week.

Support at 110.00 has been confirmed by a strong move to the upside on 31 July. And yesterday, when FOMC met, price formed a doji candle – a test of buying strength. As we can see, price has now sold off, which could be read as a good sign of underlying buying momentum.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 112.78.

The projected lower bound is: 110.57.

The projected closing price is: 111.67.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 66.8981. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.66. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -0. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.020 at 111.630. Volume was 94% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 9% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
111.640 111.670 111.590 111.630 5,926

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.36 110.71 110.03
Volatility: 5 6 8
Volume: 96,357 103,355 106,301

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into JPY= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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