Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) may continue to consolidate

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) may continue to consolidate

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) may continue to consolidate 

USD/JPY marks another failed attempt to test the 2018-high (114.55)as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tames speculation for an extended hiking-cycle,and the dollar-yen exchange rate may continue to consolidate ahead of the next interest rate decision on December 19 as it preserves the range for November.

The reaction to Chairman Powell undermines the recent resilience in USD/JPY and leaves the greenback vulnerable to near-term headwinds as the central bank head is scheduled to testify in front of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress next week.

Chairman Powell may strike a similar tone before U.S. lawmakers as ‘the economic effects of our gradual rate increases are uncertain,’ and another batch of less-hawkish remarks may sap the appeal of the U.S. dollar as there appears to be limited views on implementing above-neutral interest rates. In turn, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may do little to influence the near-term outlook for USD/JPY even though the updates are anticipated to show the economy adding another 200K jobs in November, and the FOMC could be nearing the end of the hiking-cycle as interest rates ‘remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy.’

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 114.94.

The projected lower bound is: 112.68.

The projected closing price is: 113.81.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 60.0585. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.58. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 42 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.330 at 113.790. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
113.460 113.850 113.460 113.790 2,840

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 113.34 113.08 110.46
Volatility: 4 6 7
Volume: 106,325 113,847 107,286

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 3.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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