Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) markets are closed which explains the light volume
The Dollar/Yen is trading slightly higher on Monday, but volume is below average and the range is tight. The Japanese markets are closed which explains the light volume. U.S. traders face a mountain of economic data later today and ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate and monetary policy decisions and Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report.
Treasury yields and appetite for risk will continue to drive the price action. The catalyst behind the price action will be a series of economic reports.
It may confusing to some, but there will be 2 simultaneous releases after the government skipped the data release last month.
The February Core PCE Price Index is expected to come in at 0.2% and the March Core PCE Price index is expected to come in at 0.1%.
February Personal Spending is expected to have risen 0.2% and March Personal Spending is expected to post a 0.7% reading. Personal Income is expected to have risen 0.4%.
As we saw last week, any report that shows slowing inflation or growth is likely to pressure the USD/JPY. However, low volume and volatility due to the holiday in Japan and the Fed announcements on Wednesday could hold prices in a tight range.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 112.77.
The projected lower bound is: 110.85.
The projected closing price is: 111.81.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 28.7582. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.19. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 81 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.210 at 111.790. Volume was 46% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 56% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
111.590 111.890 111.510 111.790 50,408
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.89 111.32 111.50
Volatility: 4 5 7
Volume: 85,620 91,028 102,282
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.