Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) market should continue to try to break out to the upside

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) market should continue to try to break out to the upside

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) market should continue to try to break out to the upside

The US dollar has rallied again during early trading on Monday, reaching towards the ¥108.50 level. At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to reach towards the 50 day EMA above, and if we can break above there it’s very likely that we could then go to the ¥109.60 level.

At this point, that is my thesis as we have been forming a significant turnaround, and if the market does in fact break out, this could be the bottom of the pullback that we have been seen for some time.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level has offered support, as one would expect. However, keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to the stock market, so in a sense it’s a bit counterintuitive – but if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates that should lift the stock market, which ironically will lift the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.71.

The projected lower bound is: 107.54.

The projected closing price is: 108.63.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.3731. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 146.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.030 at 108.680. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 14% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
108.710 108.720 108.670 108.680 1,773

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.12 108.96 110.85
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 78,377 88,193 98,726

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 2.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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