Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) looks set for pullback
USD/JPY is turning lower at the start of the week, with the pair hoping to move into a retracement phase following recent gains. The key level to watch here is ¥111.75, where a break below this level would point towards a move lower. Should we see such a move, a conservative area of support to look for is around the 61.8% to 76.4% retracement zone of the ¥111.11-¥112.17 rally.
However, whether we start a phase of selling depends on the ¥111.75 level, and thus it makes sense to look out for whether we break and hold below that level to determine direction for the short term.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.84.
The projected upper bound is: 113.02.
The projected lower bound is: 110.61.
The projected closing price is: 111.82.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.7908. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.30. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 43 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.030 at 111.800. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 32% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
111.840 111.880 111.780 111.800 5,062
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.49 111.37 109.75
Volatility: 7 7 8
Volume: 78,280 100,605 104,724
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 1.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.