Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) looks comfortable at its recent highs however and could well push on
The Japanese Yen remains on the defensive against the US Dollar with USD/JPY still quite comfortable at two-month highs.
Admittedly a bit of range trading has in the past few days replaced the more obvious uptrend on the daily chart. But long Easter holiday weekends probably account for much of this and the lack of much profit taking before the break suggests a degree of enduring bullishness.
For now, the pair remains stuck in the narrow channel between 111.76 and 112.14. This area was as high as the last significant upward foray got in early March and will have to be surmounted if Dollar bulls are going to push on and claw back even more of the steep falls seen between November 2018 and January this year. Gains since have made back about 80% of the slide but the assault on last year’s peaks above 114 will probably remain a more gradual affair.
For the moment bulls can still dare to hope for as long as the current range holds. Indeed, they can probably remain optimistic as long as channel support at 111.56 or so remains firm.
Below that the first and second Fibonacci retracements of this year’s rise lie in wait, at 110.86 and 110.07, respectively. USD/JPY would probably have to fall enduringly below both to fully negate this latest upward attempt.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 111.08.
The projected upper bound is: 112.91.
The projected lower bound is: 110.97.
The projected closing price is: 111.94.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 5 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 50.3547. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 76 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed unchanged at 111.910. Volume was 23% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 30% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
111.920 111.980 111.840 111.910 72,891
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.76 111.20 111.51
Volatility: 5 6 7
Volume: 82,146 91,615 102,961
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into JPY= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.
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