Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) looking towards the ¥110 level

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) looking towards the ¥110 level

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) looking towards the ¥110 level

The US dollar has filled the gap from the open on Monday, so it’s very likely that we will then go looking towards the ¥110 level, which would be an area that will attract a lot of attention because it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and this of course will determine where we go next. To the downside, the uptrend line near the ¥108.30 level will attract further attention as well, so at this point it’s very likely that we will see buyers in that area as well, not only because of the fact that it is the bottom of the overall uptrend channel, but it also features the 200 day EMA which attracts attention in and of itself.

The all things being equal, it’s very likely that the market will stay within the channel, unless of course the market completely falls apart as far as risk is concerned. Ultimately, this is a market that is in an uptrend and in theory should stay there despite the fact that it has been very noisy and choppy all the way up. If we do break above the ¥110 level, it’s likely that the market could go down towards the ¥111 level. Furthermore, the market could then go to the ¥112.30 level. To the downside, if we were to break down it could open up a move back down towards the ¥105 level over the longer term as it is supported based upon the larger consolidation area that the market has been in for quite some time.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 109.10.

The projected upper bound is: 109.80.

The projected lower bound is: 108.15.

The projected closing price is: 108.98.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 30.0834. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 122 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -119.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.020 at 108.970. Volume was 5% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 34% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
109.000 109.060 108.570 108.970 86,267
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 109.47 109.20 108.44
Volatility: 3 5 7
Volume: 78,492 76,227 86,574

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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