Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) lingering concerns over the impact of the coronavirus
The Dollar/Yen firmed as global equity markets and government debt yields slumped on Friday as lingering concerns over the impact of the coronavirus on global growth overshadowed a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report that indicated an economy on pace to grow moderately.
Wall Street stocks fell from record highs and the safe-haven Japanese Yen rose as investors weighed how much the virus is likely to impact supply chains. China accounts for about one-third of global growth.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned up last week when buyers took out the last swing top at 109.266. The main trend will change to down on a move through 108.313.
On Friday, the USD/JPY posted a closing price reversal top. The chart pattern will be confirmed when sellers take out 109.534. This won’t change the main trend to down, but it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day break, or a 50% correction of the last rally.
The major retracement zone is 109.361 to 108.421. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.
The short-term range is 108.313 to 110.024. Its 50% level at 109.169 is another potential downside target.
The intermediate range is 107.651 to 110.290. Its retracement zone at 108.971 to 108.659 is another potential support area.
The main range is 106.485 to 110.290. Its retracement zone at 108.421 to 107.939 is another key support area.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Based on Friday’s price action and the close at 109.782, the direction of the USD/JPY on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s low at 109.534.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 110.61.
The projected lower bound is: 108.82.
The projected closing price is: 109.71.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.2952. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 129 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.020 at 109.700. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 12% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
109.840 109.840 109.610 109.700 2,982
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.28 109.24 108.37
Volatility: 6 5 7
Volume: 78,374 75,479 86,752
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 1.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.