Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 110.452

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 110.452

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 110.452

The Dollar/Yen is trading lower early Thursday amid another drop in U.S. Treasury yields and further weakness in the global equity markets. Traders are reacting to lower shares in Asia on Thursday, which are falling in reaction to weakness on Wall Street and the drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its lowest level in more than a year.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the USD/JPY is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 110.452 and the main 50% level at 110.316.

Bullish Scenario

Holding 110.316 will be the first sign of buyers. Taking out 110.452 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the initial target 110.713 and the intermediate retracement zone at 110.825 to 111.088.

Bearish Scenario

Holding below 110.452 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of 110.316 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. The trigger point for an acceleration to the downside is 110.212.

Taking out the pivot at 110.212 could trigger a steep break into the main Fibonacci level at 109.887. This is followed by last Friday’s low at 109.710 and the major 50% level at 109.445.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.12.

The projected lower bound is: 109.06.

The projected closing price is: 110.09.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 47.5116. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 59 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.440 at 110.070. Volume was 50% below average (consolidating)(neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.500 110.530 110.010 110.070 50,006

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.68 110.51 111.44
Volatility: 7 6 7
Volume: 91,637 94,333 104,098

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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