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Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) lack of consensus when it comes to risk appetite


Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) lack of consensus when it comes to risk appetite

US dollar continues to bounce around the ¥109 level during trading on Wednesday, as the market simply doesn’t know where to go next. There seems to be a lack of consensus when it comes to risk appetite right now, the markets are simply a bit of a malaise.

It looks as if summer has finally showed up, as currency markets have calmed down. There is a significant lack of new slow right now so at this point in time we need to rely solely upon technical analysis. Currently, it looks as if the ¥109 level is supportive and a breakdown below there could open up the door down to the ¥108 level, an area that I believe is even more supportive.

On the other side of the equation we have the bullish case. The ¥110 level is of course important, and a break above there allows the market and finally go fill the gap above that I’ve been talking about for a couple of weeks now, found at the ¥111.15 level. A break above that level would of course be even more impressive and could send this market looking towards the ¥112 level, maybe even ¥112.50.

However, right now we simply have no reason to move in one direction or the other. Traders are starting to think more about summer vacations than anything else, and of course the lack of news flow cripples the idea of whether we are in a “risk on” or possibly a “risk off” environment. At this point, the US/China trade relations are without a doubt the biggest story, and quite frankly I think the market is getting a bit tired of the whole situation, reacting less and less every time there is a new headline.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.60.

The projected upper bound is: 110.50.

The projected lower bound is: 108.57.

The projected closing price is: 109.54.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 31.9020. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.03. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.020 at 109.560. Volume was 93% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
109.590 109.590 109.530 109.560 6,423

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.78 110.80 111.39
Volatility: 6 6 7
Volume: 84,265 87,193 99,955

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 1.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

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