Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Lack of Clarity Over Trade Deal

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Lack of Clarity Over Trade Deal

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Lack of Clarity Over Trade Deal

The Dollar/Yen is trading lower on Tuesday in reaction to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields and lower demand for risky assets. This comes just one day after the Forex pair jumped to its highest level since December 27 on the back of higher Treasury yields. Yesterday, it was the hope of a trade deal between the United States and China driving the price action. Today, it’s the lack of clarity over the details of any deal to end the trade dispute, driving prices lower.

Some of today’s selling is being fueled by investors casting doubts on whether the developments were significant enough to expect a new trade deal sooner than previously expected. Traders began to raise concerns over what the final trade agreement would look like. Questions were raised about whether the U.S. would keep current tariffs in place, gradually reduce them, or eliminate them all at once.

Traders also appear to be squaring positions ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress. Investors will be looking for clues on the Fed’s next moves during Powell’s appearance, when he will provide prepared remarks followed by question-and-answer sessions.

They’ll be looking for: an acknowledgement of the challenges balance sheet reduction poses, and the economic outlook in view of renewed chatter from Fed policymakers about the weak pace of inflation amid a global economic slowdown.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways

The projected upper bound is: 112.16.

The projected lower bound is: 109.37.

The projected closing price is: 110.77.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 58.6535. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.02. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 37 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 30 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.260 at 110.800. Volume was 58% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 15% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
111.050 111.080 110.740 110.800 44,263

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.72 109.83 111.30
Volatility: 5 8 7
Volume: 89,961 95,780 105,662

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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