Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Japan’s Exports Post Worst Fall in 3 Years

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Japan’s Exports Post Worst Fall in 3 Years

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Japan’s Exports Post Worst Fall in 3 Years

The Dollar/Yen is trading lower on Wednesday and threatening to take out last week’s low at 108.244 as concerns over the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations have fueled another round of safe-haven buying of the Japanese Yen.

The move into the Yen is being fueled by worries that the two economic powerhouses have hit a snag in negotiations over the rollback of tariffs. Furthermore, President Trump fanned the flames by threatening to raise tariffs.

Trump Threatens Higher Tariffs

During a meeting with his Cabinet on Tuesday, President Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs on Chinese goods if that country does not make a deal on trade. Trump’s comment is likely a response to reports that the two economic powerhouses have reached an apparent stalemate in trade negotiations that have lasted nearly two years.

“If we don’t make a deal with China, I’ll just raise the tariffs even higher,” Trump said in the meeting.

Japan’s Exports Post Worst Fall in 3 Years

Japan’s exports tumbled at their quickest pace in three years in October, threatening to tip the trade-reliant economy into recession as weakening demand from the United States and China darkened the outlook, according to Reuters.

Official data out on Wednesday showed Japan’s exports fell 9.2% year-on-year in October, a bigger decline than the 7.6% drop expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

The data comes after a preliminary reading of gross domestic product last week showed Japan’s economy post the worst growth in a year in the third quarter.

The Japanese government has said it plans to compile a stimulus package as soon as possible as a pre-emptive measure against heightening overseas risks.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 109.49.

The projected lower bound is: 107.64.

The projected closing price is: 108.56.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 37.5000. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 71 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -60. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed up 0.020 at 108.550. Volume was 0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 47% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
108.530 108.740 108.330 108.550 91,012
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.82 108.26 108.97
Volatility: 4 5 7
Volume: 87,828 90,154 90,378

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into JPY= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods.

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