Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) investors will be keeping an eye on U.S. durable goods orders and consumer confidence
Japan’s consumer inflation remains subdued. National Core CPI dipped to 0.3% in August, down from 0.5% a month earlier. This was the indicator’s weakest gain since March 2017. BoJ Governor Kuroda noted that CPI is around 0.5%, well off the BoJ’s inflation target of 2.0%. Kuroda said that the bank would increase the monetary base until the bank’s target was met.
There was disappointing news out of the U.S., as retail sales contracted in September. The headline reading declined by 0.3%, after a gain of 0.4% in the previous release. Core retail sales declined 0.1%, missing the estimate of 0.2%. There was no relief from the manufacturing front, as Philly Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to 5.6 in October, compared to 12.0 points a month earlier.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 107.99.
The projected upper bound is: 109.82.
The projected lower bound is: 107.27.
The projected closing price is: 108.54.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 55.7144. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.05. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 49 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.060 at 108.480. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 0% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
108.460 108.510 108.420 108.480 318
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.24 107.26 109.06
Volatility: 5 8 7
Volume: 84,824 91,792 91,322
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.
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