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Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) investors will be forced to make a decision due to a change in trading conditions


Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) investors will be forced to make a decision due to a change in trading conditions

The Dollar/Yen closed lower on Friday after posting a volatile outside trading range. The price action suggests investor indecision. Short-covering due to dampened concerns over safe-haven demand may be providing support, but expectations of a sooner-than-expected rate cut by the Fed is helping to limit gains. We’re looking for heightened volatility as investors will be forced to make a decision due to a change in trading conditions.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum may have shifted to the upside with the formation of a closing price reversal bottom on June 5.

A trade through 107.810 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 109.930.

The main range is 105.180 to 112.405. Its retracement zone at 108.735 to 107.940 is controlling the near-term direction of the USD/JPY. On Friday, the Forex pair closed inside this zone.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.08.

The projected upper bound is: 109.14.

The projected lower bound is: 107.11.

The projected closing price is: 108.13.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.3156. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 31.56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.220 at 108.180. Volume was 2% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 33% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
108.400 108.610 107.870 108.180 88,939

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 108.75 110.55 111.30
Volatility: 8 6 7
Volume: 97,755 88,507 100,030

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 2.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.

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