Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) investors waiting to see what the jobs number is going to be
The US dollar is running into a significant amount of resistance at the ¥112 level, basically where we started the major selloff from. At this point, the market continues to go back and forth at this area, and quite frankly the trading on Monday was horrible. The market essentially did nothing, so at this point there isn’t much to do other than observe this market and recognize when the attitude changes.
We could see this market go sideways waiting to see what the jobs number is going to be, which is pair tends to be very sensitive to as well. If that’s the case, we may be looking at a quiet couple of days ahead. At this point, this is one of my least favourite currency pairs to trade in this type of trading environment.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 110.71.
The projected upper bound is: 113.29.
The projected lower bound is: 110.66.
The projected closing price is: 111.97.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.
If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.8614. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.05. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 42 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 155.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 35 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.200 at 111.940. Volume was 57% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 15% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
111.720 111.980 111.700 111.940 44,577
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.18 109.87 111.35
Volatility: 5 8 7
Volume: 90,306 94,837 104,912
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 0.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 26 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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