Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) investors reacting to Friday’s mixed U.S. jobs report

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) investors reacting to Friday’s mixed U.S. jobs report

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) investors reacting to Friday’s mixed U.S. jobs report

Investors may have grown tired of buying strength and may be setting up for a correction into value territory. Also a drop in Treasury yields may also be signaling confirmation of the Fed’s dovish policy. Given last week’s U.S. and China manufacturing PMI data and U.S. jobs report.

The US dollar has rallied slightly during the trading session on Friday, as we got the jobs number in the United States at this point, it looks very likely that we are going to continue to struggle to go anywhere without some type of catalyst. I believe that catalyst is probably going to be the S&P 500, as it is at extreme highs, and extreme resistance.

Shayne ‘Jack’ Heffernan sees that the market is moving right along with the S&P 500, so if we can break out over there, it’s likely that the US dollar will break above the ¥112 level. Once it does, we could then go to the ¥113.50 level. To the downside, we have the ¥111.50 level that is the bottom of the 50 pip range that we are stuck in right now, and if the S&P 500 rolls over we could very well find this market falling down towards the ¥110 level.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 112.47.

The projected lower bound is: 110.46.

The projected closing price is: 111.46.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.1431. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.48. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 66 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.310 at 111.420. Volume was 62% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 25% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
111.710 111.780 111.330 111.420 36,973

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 111.15 110.78 111.48
Volatility: 5 6 7
Volume: 93,425 93,940 103,827

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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